The vote has taken on deeper significance in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s threats in the Arctic.
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Why it matters
Trump's Arctic threats have shifted the referendum from a routine membership question into a strategic geopolitical choice about alignment with Europe versus the United States.
Most affected
Icelandic voters — Deciding between EU membership and a closer US security relationship amid tensions. NATO members in the Arctic — Iceland's choice will affect the geopolitical balance and alliance structure in the region.
Likely next
Whether Iceland votes to approve or reject EU membership, and the margin of the result.